Dramatic predictions for real estate after QLD election

A double-digit spike in property sales could be in store for Queensland post-election, according new research by Place Advisory crunching sales numbers off the past three electoral cycles.

It’s projected a boost in market confidence with an increase of 10-15% in sales during the quarter following the election, irrespective of the winning party.

Historically the market stalls around elections as buyers adopt a wait-and-see stance but comes back strongly immediately afterwards, with the last 2020 election seeing a double-digit spike in sales volumes (+15%) when the Labor Party retained its hold on power.

That rise was significantly higher than the previous two election cycles – which saw a 9.2% rise in sales volumes when Labor took over from the Liberals in 2012, and a 9.3% increase when LNP beat ALP in 2015.

House prices rose as well after the last elections – up 9.5%, compared to two percentage points when ALP beat LNP in 2012 and 5.9 percentage points when LNP beat ALP in 2015.

Gold Coast residents will be heading to the polls this weekend alongside fellow Queensland residents. Picture: Getty

“Place Advisory does not believe the ALP’s rise in median house price was due to the party elected – the Brisbane market was trending upwards regardless of the party in power,” the research said.

“Both electoral outcomes (a change in government and the retention of power) resulted in positive market movements, suggesting that the outcome itself may be less important than the certainty that follows.”

Place co-founder Damian Hackett said there was a “spike in indecisiveness during times of uncertainty (like elections) among a portion of the population”.

“It’s a phenomenon observed both federally and at the state level,” he said, and while federal elections generally involve more direct hip-pocket impact like property taxes, state-level indecisiveness was often linked to public service jobs and major local development decisions – which in this case includes infrastructure for the 2032 Olympics.

Brisbane was selected has the host city for the 2032 Olympic Games in 2021 and will become the third Australian city to host the games. Picture: Getty 

“Usually federal elections have a bigger impact on the overall economy, but even at state level, clearly there’s a percentage of the population with this fear of making decisions, obviously the state government is a huge employer.”

Mr Hackett said the 2024 state election was “interesting timing” in the middle of the traditional spring selling season.

“September, October, November are always typically when you’ll see the strongest volumes of sales happening, so it might just be that because of the elections, it might even push that November to December activity a bit higher than normal.”

“It will be interesting to see what happens with auction clearance rates in Brisbane around the next couple of weekends to see whether there are some people holding off compared to say what’s happening in New South Wales and Victoria where they don’t have a state election.”

This article first appeared on realestate.com and has been republished with permission.